I love March Madness, but Iòòò½ÊÓƵ™ve never been very good at making a NCAA Tournament bracket.
This is not because of a lack of knowledge about the sport or not being aware of how good some of the sleeper teams are. Chances are I know more about Drake and UC San Diego than you know about Duke or Houston. Iòòò½ÊÓƵ™m a basketball junkie.
My lack of bracket pool success is easy to figure out. Every year, I donòòò½ÊÓƵ™t make my March Madness bracket in an effort to win the office bracket pool. I make my bracket in an effort to do the impossible, make the perfect bracket.
Iòòò½ÊÓƵ™m not naive. I know that I will never make the perfect March Madness bracket, but that does not stop me from trying. I know that there will be crazy upsets and one or two teams in the Elite Eight that nobody will see coming. Every year, I try to pick those teams, often to the detriment of my own bracket.
That approach to building my bracket is the reason for my single greatest sports prediction. In 2013, I predicted that ninth-seeded Wichita State would shock the world and advance all the way to the Final Four. That was one of the only years I had a good bracket and won my bracket pool.
In 2018, I predicted 11th-seeded Loyola-Chicago to make the Elite Eight and they ended up in the Final Four. There are many more bold predictions that did not pan out, but I prefer to focus on the ones that did.
Iòòò½ÊÓƵ™ve been to two Final Fours in my life, 2016 in Houston and 2008 in San Antonio. The 2008 Final Four was historic because it was the only time in NCAA history that all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. My mom, who is not a big sports fan is still thrilled we went to the 2008 Final Four for that reason.
This year the Final Four is in San Antonio once again and as I survey the college basketball landscape one thing is clear; the No. 1 seeds have separated from the rest of the tournament field.
Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are the four best teams in college basketball. I donòòò½ÊÓƵ™t think itòòò½ÊÓƵ™s particularly close and a lot of the advanced metrics agree with that sentiment. I do not think we will ever see the four top seeds in the Final Four again, but if it does happen, this feels like a year where itòòò½ÊÓƵ™s possible.
When filling out a bracket, there are a few things I must have. Some things are obvious, like a 12 seed beating a 5 seed in the first round. I also must have at least one 11 over 6 upset, and at least double-digit seed make the Sweet 16, but no more than four double-digit seeds.
The hardest rule for me to follow this year is having at least one of the No. 1 seeds losing prior to the Elite Eight. The most important rule though is knowing how many teams can win the title and picking one of them to do so. Typically, there are only seven or eight teams that can win it, but this year there are 11.
Every year since 2002, the year Ken Pomeroy began publishing his ratings, the national champion has been ranked in the top 40 nationally in his offensive efficiency rating and the top 25 in his defensive efficiency rating.
Twelve teams meet that criteria this year, but UCLA lost its first conference tournament game and teams who lose their first conference tournament game have never won a national championship.
The teams that can win according to that metric are Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Michigan State, Iowa State, Maryland, Clemson, Ole Miss and Louisville.
This year I think two 12 seeds pull the common 12 over 5 upset with UC San Diego knocking off Michigan, and Colorado State taking out Memphis. I have Drake as an 11 seed making the Sweet 16 and even the Elite Eight.
While I donòòò½ÊÓƵ™t really want to pick a No. 1 seed to lose, Iòòò½ÊÓƵ™m going to say Auburn loses first in the second round. Having to play either Louisville in the state of Kentucky or a very good Creighton team is a tough draw, plus the Tigers have faltered down the stretch.
In my quest for the perfect bracket this season, Florida is my national champion. Over the last six weeks, nobody is playing better basketball than the Gators.
To win this tournament, you have to be able to win in different ways. The Gators are one of the nationòòò½ÊÓƵ™s best shooting teams, they are one of the best rebounding teams, they have maybe the best trio of guards in college basketball along with four high level big men that they rotate effectively.
The odds of having a perfect bracket are greater than one in nine quintillion (9,000,000,000,000,000,000), but maybe this is the year I do it!
