For just the second time ever, this yearòòò½ÊÓƵ™s Final Four will feature all four No. 1 seeds.
Thereòòò½ÊÓƵ™s a lot of speculation as to why that is. Many theorize that the transfer portal and NIL money coming into college sports gives the high major programs too big of an advantage to overcome.
While those factors weigh massively on this season, I believe there is a simpler explanation for all four No. 1 seeds making it to San Antonio. Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are four of the most dominant college basketball teams in recent memory that happen to coexist.
For those who say that NIL and the transfer portal are the reasons why this year lacks parity, I would ask them this: Why did we have a No. 4 seed, two No. 5 seeds and a No. 9 seed in the Final Four in 2023?
Ahead of the 2023 season, NIL and the transfer portal were already in place, but that season was filled with Cinderella stories, including No. 16 seed Fairleigh-Dickinson knocking off No. 1 seed Purdue. The portal and NIL play a factor in these four teamòòò½ÊÓƵ™s excellence. But it is not the sole or even the biggest reason for this yearòòò½ÊÓƵ™s favorite dominant tournament.
As most college basketball nerds do, I like to turn to Ken Pomeroyòòò½ÊÓƵ™s ratings in order to help me decipher who are the best teams in the country. What the ratings showed heading into this tournament is that the four No. 1 seeds had separated from the rest of college basketball. The tournament has proven that.
In 2008, the gap between the lowest rated KenPom No. 1 seed (UCLA) and the fifth-rated team (Wisconsin) was 3.26 points. That is a massive gap for teams just one spot apart. This season, the gap between the fourth-rated team (Auburn) and the fifth-rated team (Tennessee) is 4.4 points. For reference, the gap between Tennessee and the 11th-rated team (Iowa State) is 4.15 points.
Itòòò½ÊÓƵ™s not just that these four teams have separated from the rest of the sport this season. Per the KenPom data, these are four of the 10 best college basketball teams of the last 29 seasons (when KenPom data began).
In 2008, we saw that Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA were some of the best college basketball teams we have seen in recent memory. We recognized that those four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four was a sign of their excellence, not a failing of the sport. I think we need to hold this yearòòò½ÊÓƵ™s four in the same, if not higher, regard.
The sign of a great team in the tournament is one that can win even when it doesnòòò½ÊÓƵ™t play its best game. With the exception of Duke, who is cutting through this tournament like a hot knife through butter, these teams have been able to do that multiple times in this tournament.
Auburn, Houston and Florida have all had multiple games far from its best, but theyòòò½ÊÓƵ™re in the Final Four because they do not rely on just one thing. All of these teams are great at multiple things, so when they have an off-shooting night or a team is able to find its way through their defense, they can always turn to something else.
All four teams in this yearòòò½ÊÓƵ™s Final Four are in the KenPom top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Typically, there are only one or two teams in all of college basketball ranked in the top 10 in both. All four having that quality this year shows just how good this group of Final Four teams is.
While this year has lacked for upsets, we are set up for potentially one of the all-time great Final Fours. In any number of seasons, one of these teams would be the runaway best team in college basketball. On Saturday and Monday night, we get to watch these four battle in a clash of titans for the national championship.
Some are disappointed at the lack of upsets this tournament has provided. However, the end result is that we got the best Final Four possible, and possibly the most high-level Final Four of a lifetime.
